[{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/categories/","section":"Categories","summary":"","title":"Categories","type":"categories"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Tags","type":"tags"},{"content":"这里是我的博客，主要涵盖哲学、政治学、经济学以及社会科学方法论。\n","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/blog/","section":"博客","summary":"这里是我的博客，主要涵盖哲学、政治学、经济学以及社会科学方法论。\n","title":"博客","type":"blog"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AE%BA/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"方法论","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"社会科学","type":"tags"},{"content":" 问题起点 # 社会科学的核心任务之一是识别因果关系。然而「相关不等于因果」 这句话背后隐藏着一整套方法论体系。\n反事实框架 # Rubin（1974）提出的反事实框架（Potential Outcomes Framework）为解决这个问题提供了统一的概念工具。\n主要方法 # 随机对照实验（RCT）：黄金标准 工具变量（IV）：利用外生变化 断点回归（RDD）：利用阈值附近的不连续性 双重差分（DID）：利用面板数据的平行趋势 倾向得分匹配（PSM）：控制可观测的选择偏差 结语 # 方法服务于问题，而非反过来。选择什么方法，取决于你面对的数据结构和研究设计。\n","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/blog/2025-12-01-causal-inference-intro/","section":"博客","summary":"从反事实框架到随机实验，这篇文章梳理社会科学中因果推断的核心方法。","title":"示例文章：社会科学的因果推断方法","type":"blog"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/categories/%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95/","section":"Categories","summary":"","title":"研究方法","type":"categories"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/%E5%9B%A0%E6%9E%9C%E6%8E%A8%E6%96%AD/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"因果推断","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"2025-12-01","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/","section":"张津华丨Jasper Zhang","summary":"","title":"张津华丨Jasper Zhang","type":"page"},{"content":"","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/series/","section":"Series","summary":"","title":"Series","type":"series"},{"content":" 张津华 # 南开大学 PPE（哲学、政治学、经济学）专业本科生。\n研究兴趣 # 社会科学方法论 政治哲学 公共政策分析 定量与定性研究方法 联系方式 # GitHub: jasper-zhang Email: you@example.com ","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/about/","section":"关于我","summary":"张津华 # 南开大学 PPE（哲学、政治学、经济学）专业本科生。\n","title":"关于我","type":"about"},{"content":" 待补充 ","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/portfolio/","section":"作品集","summary":" 待补充 ","title":"作品集","type":"portfolio"}]